Live Body Rain, Body Pressure, and Weather Science forecasting competition

Starting Florida map…Preparing Body Rain, Body Pressure, and Weather Science forecasts.
Live and upcoming forecastsBody Rain, Body Pressure, Science Rain, and Science Pressure
Body Rain Body Pressure Science Rain Science Pressure
Why TrickToe exists

Can your body really predict the weather?

People have said for generations that aching joints, headaches, and familiar body signals can mean the weather is about to change. TrickToe allows you to put that idea to the test by making a prediction, verifying what the weather actually does, and building your forecasting record over time.

PredictVerifyBuild your record
Florida Beta onlyForecasting and map search are currently limited to Florida.
Live Florida experimentFloridaNo current or upcoming forecasts yet. Be the first to put one on the map.
0 active0 forecasters

Example activity icons are shown only while this introduction is open. Real map activity remains unchanged. TrickToe is not medical or emergency guidance.

TrickToe live map Current + upcoming Every active forecast from now through the next six hours is displayed together.
0 Body Rain 0 Body Pressure 0 Science Rain 0 Science Pressure 0 hotspots
Active forecasters0 Members nationwide
© OpenStreetMap contributors
Live Florida activity Connecting to the live map

Reading every current and upcoming Body Signal and Weather Science forecast.

Checking live activity…

Body Rain 0
Body Pressure 0
Science Rain 0
Science Pressure 0
Active Body Signal hotspots 0
Active Forecasters 0
Members nationwide 0
WCAG-friendly text map interpretation No current or upcoming forecasts

This text alternative describes every current and upcoming Body Signal and Weather Science forecast shown together on the home map.

No current or upcoming forecasts are visible on the home map.

    Why first. Then proof.

    Turn a weather hunch into a record you can actually test.

    People have long wondered whether familiar body signals can anticipate weather. TrickToe exists to make that question testable. TrickToe allows you to lock a prediction to a time and Florida location, compare it with observed rain or barometric pressure, and build a verified forecasting record over time. The map, scoring, and leaderboards show what happened after the prediction was made.

    01

    Predict

    Record the broad body signal and the Florida area before the outcome is known.

    02

    Lock the call

    TrickToe timestamps the prediction, location, target, and scoring window so the forecast cannot be rewritten afterward.

    03

    Verify

    Observed precipitation or pressure determines what actually happened under the published scoring rules.

    04

    Build your record

    Verified outcomes reveal how accurate your forecasting method is and how that accuracy develops over time.

    Florida Beta only

    Forecast submission and live-map location search are currently limited to Florida.

    Private by design

    Public activity uses a broad signal category, approximate area, timing, and weather outcome.

    Science stays separate

    Weather Science forecasts use their own scoring lane and never receive Body Signal convergence points.

    Arthritis, joint discomfort & weather

    Do your joints seem to notice the weather before you do?

    People who track arthritis, recurring joint discomfort, old injuries, or other weather-sensitive body signals can use TrickToe to record what they feel and compare it with observed rain and barometric pressure changes. TrickToe is a community weather experiment, not a medical diagnostic tool. It does not diagnose arthritis or predict an individual’s symptoms. Florida is the first active forecasting area, with TrickToe designed for broader nationwide participation.

    Current performance and permanent annual records

    Forecaster boards

    The Live Board shows the top 10 current forecasters in Body Rain, Body Pressure, Weather Science Precipitation, and Weather Science Pressure. The History Board preserves qualified annual category records.

    Live season A recent verified forecast is required to remain current.
    Body SignalRain leaders
    0 ranked
    Body SignalPressure leaders
    0 ranked
    Weather SciencePrecipitation leaders
    0 ranked
    Weather SciencePressure leaders
    0 ranked
    A real forecasting record, never a fictional profile

    Discover whether your personal weather signal is actually reliable.

    Body Signal profiles build a private-to-public weather journal: verified hits, false alarms, actual warning time, hotspot contributions, and the body signal that performs best.

    Body Signal or Weather Science identity Hits, partials, and false alarms Average and best warning time Hotspot and pioneer recognition Confidence-adjusted Live Rating Qualified annual history
    +
    Forecaster profile

    No profile created yet

    Create your profile to begin participating.

    50.00
    Raw averageNot yet
    Verified0
    Record confidence0.00%
    Current statusRecord Building
    Live season
    Highest achievedNot yet
    Competition laneChoose one
    Published Florida rules · two separate competitions

    Body Signals measure personal patterns. Weather Science measures forecasts.

    Body Signal reports choose either Rain or Pressure and end at the selected forecast time. Rain uses the newest NOAA hourly precipitation snapshot TrickToe successfully captured at or before that exact time; Pressure uses the same locked NWS station and target window. TrickToe rewards advance notice and accuracy and applies a penalty when the selected outcome does not occur. Weather Science forecasts now choose either Precipitation or Pressure, with an independent scoring contract and top-ten board for each category.

    01Locked before the outcome

    Time, location, lane, and scoring version are fixed before weather is verified.

    02Two separate competitions

    Body Signals and Weather Science keep independent scores, records, and leaderboards.

    03Accuracy, not activity

    Submitting alone earns nothing. Verified performance is what moves a rating.

    04False alarms count

    Early weather can score zero, and a verified Body Signal miss can subtract points.

    05Missing data is not guessed

    Results that fail the published verification-quality rules are excluded from rating.

    Body Signal

    Personal patterns, verified against Rain or Pressure.

    Rain keeps the established radar contract. Pressure locks a nearby NWS station and baseline reading. Users may choose a broader Pressure Change forecast capped at 75 points or the more specific Rising/Falling forecast worth up to 100 points. Verified false alarms can reduce the score.

    Weather Science

    Precipitation and Pressure skill, measured in separate categories.

    Precipitation scores occurrence, placement, timing, and lead time. Pressure scores direction, magnitude, target-hour timing, and lead time. Both remain independent from Body Signal convergence.

    View complete scoring methodologyExact point values, timing windows, caps, penalties, quality requirements, rating formula, and board rules.
    01

    Report the signal

    Choose one broad signal category, Mild, Noticeable, or Strong; select Rain or Pressure; then select 1 to 6 hours ahead. Pressure lets Body Signal users choose a general Pressure Change or the more specific Rising/Falling prediction. TrickToe calculates the exact scoring deadline and locks the final hour before it. No diagnosis or medical history is requested.

    02

    Watch the area

    The anonymous three-mile core remains active until the selected scoring time. Rain uses the core plus a five-mile verification halo. Pressure uses the closest suitable NWS station to the center and preserves that station for the entire result.

    03

    Form a hotspot

    Independent people with overlapping active Body Signals can form a cluster or hotspot. One person cannot stack reports, and Weather Science forecasts never create Body Signal convergence credit.

    04

    Verify the outcome

    Rain is verified with observed precipitation. Pressure is verified from the locked station’s sea-level pressure, falling back to station pressure when needed. Hits gain points, partials receive reduced credit, false alarms lose points, and incomplete observation data is excluded rather than guessed.

    Body Signal Rain · body-signal-v8

    The established Rain contract remains worth up to 100 points.

    25 weather verification 20 forecast difficulty 20 timing accuracy 15 actual warning time 10 geographic accuracy 5 personal reliability 5 independent convergence
    Body Signal Pressure · body-signal-v8

    Specific Rising/Falling forecasts can earn 100 points; a broader Pressure Change forecast is capped at 75.

    35 specific-direction verification 20 pressure magnitude 20 final-hour timing 15 selected advance notice 5 personal reliability 5 matching convergence
    Body Signal Pressure Change · body-signal-v8

    The broader either-direction option is easier to call and therefore capped at 75 points.

    15 verified pressure change 20 pressure magnitude 20 final-hour timing 10 selected advance notice 5 personal reliability 5 matching convergence
    Exact Body Signal outcomes

    The result label follows the verified location and final score.

    Hit

    Rain reaches the three-mile core during the locked final hour and scores at least 65, or a specific Pressure forecast reaches 1.0 hPa in the selected direction and scores at least 65, or the broader Pressure Change forecast reaches 1.0 hPa in either direction and scores at least 49.

    Partial hit

    Rain reaches only the five-mile halo or finishes below 65, or Pressure moves 0.5–0.99 hPa in the selected direction—or in either direction for the broader Pressure Change option. A full Pressure change below its applicable Hit threshold is also Partial.

    Too early or already established

    Rain already in the core at submission or arriving before the final hour scores 0. Pressure already moving at least 1.0 hPa under the selected option during the prior three hours, or reaching the 0.5 hPa threshold before the final hour, also scores 0.

    Miss, near miss, or unverifiable

    Rain that does not reach the measurable threshold receives the published strength penalty. Pressure that is flat—or moves the wrong way on a Rising/Falling forecast—receives the full strength penalty. Movement toward the selected threshold below 0.5 hPa receives a smaller near-miss penalty that tapers toward zero. Missing radar coverage, a missing immutable pressure baseline, or stale station data is excluded from rating rather than guessed.

    Exact Rain timing and warning points

    Rain closer to the deadline earns more timing credit.

    First on-time arrivalTiming pointsActual warning timeWarning points
    0–10 min before deadline20Under 30 min2
    11–20 min1930–89 min6
    21–30 min1890–179 min10
    31–45 min16180–269 min13
    46–60 min14270 min or more15
    Exact Pressure timing and lead points

    Pressure uses the locked final hour without claiming continuous minute precision.

    Observed Pressure resultTiming pointsSelected deadlineLead points
    Full 1.0+ hPa threshold first observed in final hour201 hour3
    Partial 0.5–0.99 hPa threshold first observed in final hour142 hours6
    Partial threshold reached before final hour03 hours9
    Threshold reached only after deadline04 hours12
    5 or 6 hours15

    For the broader Pressure Change option, lead points are 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 for one, two, three, four, and five-or-six-hour forecasts.

    Rain submission difficulty and maximum score

    Visible precipitation when a Rain report is locked sets both difficulty points and a score cap.

    Distance is measured from the edge of the three-mile core to the nearest meaningful precipitation. TrickToe requests this snapshot immediately after the forecast is locked. Once stored, it cannot change. If a valid snapshot is not captured within five minutes, the neutral Snapshot unavailable class applies.

    Submission classWeather at submissionDifficulty pointsMaximum final score
    Existing WeatherAlready inside the core00
    Close WeatherIn the halo or up to 3 miles from the core edge260
    Nearby WeatherMore than 3 and up to 10 miles away3 + distance ÷ 2, capped at 875
    Early WarningMore than 10 and up to 25 miles away8 + (distance − 10) × 0.4, capped at 1488
    Long-Range CallMore than 25 miles away within the scan14 + (distance − 25) × 0.2, capped at 1996
    Blue-Sky CallNo meaningful precipitation in the submission scan20100
    Snapshot unavailableSubmission weather could not be verified1090
    Verification and placement: precipitation in the assigned NOAA snapshot inside the core earns 25 verification points and up to 10 geographic points. Halo-only precipitation earns 12.5 verification points and up to 5 geographic points. For both core and halo results, geographic credit uses the harmonic balance between forecast-area coverage and the share of the surrounding observed event captured.
    Published snapshot rule: TrickToe assigns the newest NOAA hourly snapshot successfully captured at or before the exact scoring time. All Rain forecasts assigned to that publication share one protected observation batch.
    What counts as measurable: the locked contract uses an hourly precipitation estimate of at least 0.01 inch in at least two sampled cells and at least 10% of valid cells in the applicable core or halo. These thresholds are fixed in the scoring version and cannot be changed through site configuration.
    Verification quality: a result is excluded if valid hourly-precipitation coverage is below 65% or if the assigned observation was not captured. TrickToe does not query NOAA hours later or leave the forecast waiting indefinitely.
    Personal reliability: a new Joint, Back, or Head category begins at a neutral 2.5 of 5 points until it has three prior verified outcomes. After that, reliability is 5 × (hits + half of partial hits) ÷ prior verified outcomes; misses and other zero-point outcomes contribute 0.
    Pressure baseline, thresholds, and maximum score

    The same NWS station and immutable submission reading determine the Pressure result.

    TrickToe tests nearby NWS observation stations in distance order and locks the closest qualifying station within 50 miles with a pressure reading no more than 75 minutes old. Sea-level pressure is preferred so elevation differences do not distort the comparison; station pressure is used when sea-level pressure is unavailable. The prior three-hour movement sets the submission cap.

    Submission classPrior three-hour movement under selected optionMaximum final score
    Already established1.0 hPa or more0
    Developing trend0.5–0.99 hPa75
    Quiet or opposingLess than 0.5 hPa100 specific · 75 general
    Pressure verification: a full Rising/Falling result requires at least 1.0 hPa in the selected direction. A full Pressure Change result requires at least 1.0 hPa in either direction. A 0.5–0.99 hPa movement under the selected option is Partial. The locked station must be within 50 miles, and its submission baseline must be no more than 75 minutes old. The first qualifying station report must occur inside the locked final hour; an earlier partial threshold scores 0. The qualifying station report must use the same pressure measurement type as the baseline and carry a timestamp inside the locked final hour. Delayed NWS publication is retried for up to 25 minutes after the deadline.
    Pressure near-miss formula: below 0.5 hPa, the official result remains a Miss. If pressure moved toward the selected threshold, the penalty is reduced using Maximum penalty × (1 − qualifying movement ÷ 0.5). Wrong-direction movement on Rising/Falling forecasts, or flat pressure under any option, receives the full penalty. For a Noticeable report, 0.00 hPa scores −12, 0.25 hPa scores −6, and 0.49 hPa scores approximately −0.24. At 0.5 hPa, positive Partial scoring begins.
    Pressure components: specific-direction verification earns 35 points for Full and 17.5 for Partial. The broader Pressure Change option earns 15 for Full and 7.5 for Partial and is capped at 75. Magnitude contributes up to 20 points, final-hour timing contributes 20 for Full or 14 for Partial, the selected 1–6 hour deadline contributes up to 15 for Rising/Falling or 10 for Pressure Change, personal reliability contributes up to 5, and matching independent Pressure reports contribute up to 5. Convergence requires the same pressure option.
    Separate target records: Rain and Pressure results both continue to contribute to the overall Body Signal competition record. TrickToe also calculates and displays separate Rain and Pressure ratings, averages, confidence, hits, partials, and misses so the two forecast types can be evaluated independently.
    Balanced false-alarm risk and convergence

    Wrong calls matter, but one honest miss should not erase a strong record.

    Submitting a report earns no leaderboard points by itself. Rain already present or first arriving before the locked hour scores 0. Pressure already established at submission or reaching the partial threshold before the locked hour also scores 0. A clear miss receives the strength-based maximum below; a Pressure near miss receives a proportionally smaller penalty. An outcome after the deadline cannot improve the locked result.

    −8Mild maximumClear verified miss −12Noticeable maximumClear verified miss −18Strong maximumClear verified miss +0–5ConvergenceIndependent accounts; actual added points after cap RecognitionPioneerFirst positive report in a qualifying hotspot; no score inflation
    Balanced miss contract: Body Signal v7 and v8 use maximum penalties of −8 for Mild, −12 for Noticeable, and −18 for Strong. Rain misses use the selected maximum. Pressure uses the selected maximum when movement is flat or, for a specific forecast, opposite. Qualifying movement below 0.5 hPa reduces the penalty continuously. Earlier Body Signal versions retain their original published penalties.
    Convergence contract: forecasts must come from different accounts, be simultaneously active, choose the same Body target, use the same local date, have deadlines within one hour, and overlap at least 25% of their three-mile cores. Pressure forecasts must choose the same option: Rising with Rising, Falling with Falling, or Pressure Change with Pressure Change. One qualifying person adds 2 points, two add 3, and three or more add 4. At least two Body categories add one more point, up to 5. A difficulty cap may reduce the points actually added, and only the effective addition is displayed.
    Fair-use limits: one active Body Signal per account at a time. This is enforced when the forecast is saved, including across tabs and devices. After it reaches its scoring deadline, the same person may submit another forecast, including at the same location.
    Weather Science forecast · precip-v4

    Science remains a separate forecasting competition.

    40 measurable precipitation occurrence 25 geographic placement 20 arrival timing 15 advance notice
    Science Precipitation contract: a one-hour Florida forecast must be submitted 1 to 6 hours ahead. Measurable precipitation inside the target hour earns 40 occurrence points; no target-hour precipitation scores 0 overall. Placement uses the balance between the share of the forecast area reached and the share of the observed event captured. A first radar arrival inside the target hour earns all 20 timing points. If precipitation in the forecast area was already detected before the window, timing credit decreases linearly and reaches 0 when the first detection was two hours early. Weather beginning after the target hour closes cannot improve the locked result. Advance-notice credit rises from 3 points at one hour to 15 at six hours and is multiplied by the timing ratio. A verified Science score of 70 or more is labeled Hit; a lower positive score is Partial. Science uses the same fixed measurable-precipitation threshold of at least 0.01 inch in at least two sampled cells and at least 10% of valid cells. The same 65% precipitation-data completeness and 50% combined verification-quality exclusions apply.
    Weather Science Pressure · science-pressure-v1

    Pressure uses an independent 100-point directional forecast contract.

    40 correct pressure direction 25 pressure-change magnitude 20 target-hour timing 15 advance notice
    Science Pressure contract: a one-hour Florida forecast must be submitted 1 to 6 hours ahead and choose Rising or Falling. TrickToe locks a nearby suitable NWS station, one pressure measurement type, and an immutable submission baseline. A movement of at least 1.0 hPa in the selected direction earns the full 40 direction points and can be labeled Hit. A 0.5–0.99 hPa movement receives 20 direction points and remains Partial, capped below 70. Magnitude contributes up to 25 points, target-hour timing contributes 20, and advance notice rises from 3 points at one hour to 15 at six hours. A miss, an already-established trend, or a threshold crossed before the target hour scores 0 rather than receiving a Body Signal penalty. Missing or stale station evidence is excluded as unverifiable. Science Pressure and Science Precipitation keep separate category records and top-ten boards.
    Leaderboard formula · record-v1

    Participation strengthens confidence; it does not add bonus points.

    The Live Rating starts from a neutral 50 and moves toward the forecaster’s actual average as verified results accumulate.

    Raw Average = total verified forecast score ÷ N Record Confidence = N ÷ (N + 12) Live Rating = 50 + (Raw Average − 50) × Record Confidence
    Verified recordAverageConfidenceLive Rating
    1 perfect forecast100.007.69%53.85
    2 perfect forecasts100.0014.29%57.14
    12 forecasts averaging 8080.0050.00%65.00
    24 forecasts averaging 8080.0066.67%70.00
    Record Confidence is not a claim about the probability that a person is correct. It is the exact share of the ranking calculation supported by their own verified forecasts instead of the neutral starting value.
    Exact arithmetic: forecast components, cumulative totals, averages, confidence, and ratings are stored and calculated in integer hundredths of a point. A rounded display value never decides rank. Live Rating is bounded from 0 to 100.
    Two simple boards

    Current leadership and permanent achievement stay separate.

    No old result is erased, but a forecaster must remain current to occupy a Live Board position.

    Live Board

    Uses the current calendar-year lane record. Body Signal and Weather Science ratings are calculated separately. At least one verified forecast in that lane during the last 45 days is required to remain listed.

    Record status

    Within each lane, 1–2 forecasts: Record Building. 3–11: Provisional. 12 or more: Qualified. Every status uses the same rating formula.

    History Board

    A completed calendar-year lane is recorded only with at least 12 verified forecasts in that lane across at least 8 different months. It freezes after a 7-day verification closeout.

    Permanent record

    Qualified History Board results are frozen. Profiles retain peak rating and historical placement even after inactivity.

    Tiebreakers: higher Live Rating, then more verified forecasts, then the higher raw average.
    Rules are locked by season and lane: Body Signal and Weather Science records are calculated independently. Changing profile methods does not move earlier scores into the other competition. Rating and qualification settings are stored when the season opens. Each forecast also keeps the scoring-version label it had when submitted, so an older pending forecast is never silently rescored under a newer contract.